Well it’s been over 2 years, nearly 3, since Russia attacked Ukraine. A brutal conflict with incredible destruction and thousands dead.

Although politics is complex, and the reasons why war starts are even more complex, many facts or factors have been put forward as a single reason or multiple reasons to as why the attack started.

Everything from NATO expansion to nazis.

But why did President Putin give the order to attack?

Here is the real reason:

The Belt and Road initiative is Chinas big transport idea. To build a enormous network of roads and waterways for transport of gods (and people etc) from the east to the west. A modern ”Silk road”.

Belt and Road Initiative – Wikipedia

The illustration above is not exact, in fact there are several different proposed ways the motorways are drawn.

Try now to think like if you where the ruler of the whole russian empire like Putin. There is something that feels bad about the map. Everybody understands what happens to a city when the motorway going thru it is shut
down and a new motorway is built 10 km away. The town looses a lot of business and shrinks. City’s along the the new motorway grows instead and people and business move there. Now look more close at the map over Europe:

Thats right, Moscow ends up on a bi-road far, far from the main road. Moscow will looses a lot of business and shrink.

Can you see a city that will be closer to the motorway, better placed and that will benifit from it, instead of loosing out like Moscow?

Kiev is the new Moscow.

Putin wants Ukraine because it perfectly placed, you can argue it’s Russia, and Kiev will be the new Moscow. With the big fancy motorway right near it.

Support of hypotesis:

Reason 1: Kiev is needed after the war, so a total bombing campain leveling the city is not tried by the russians.

Reason 2: China is very supporting of the war, because the belt and road initiative is very important to China.

Reason 3: Putin can’t say why he attacked Ukraine. Then he must announce that Kiev will be the new capital city, and a lot of powerful people in Moscow will be very upset. So he says nothing.